名詞: n.
refers to the frequent discrepancy between poll numbers and actual results when one vote is considered more politically correct than another

social desirability bias

The effect is named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American, lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election despite polls that showed him with a significant lead. In 1989, election night polls showed large victories for Douglas Wilder and David Dinkins, African Americans who were running for Governor of Virginia and Mayor of New York, respectively. The final results showed Wilder and Dinkins both victorious, but by very narrow margins.
The theory is that people often feel more comfortable telling the pollster what they think the pollster will respect.
In the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries, Barack Obama had a large Election Day lead in New Hampshire according to polls, but lost the primary. The Bradley Effect also appeared to play a role in California and New Jersey. The Bradley Effect has appeared strongest in areas with the highest percentage of white voters who identify themselves as liberal.

詞條貢獻者： Dr.eye編輯組  
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